Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 23.734157 27.002125 30.521796 34.590199 39.159068 44.127248 49.934599
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.884522 23.308324 28.435350 34.799893 42.471280 51.401394 62.565929
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 16.137151 20.987034 26.877409 34.527642 44.167642 55.875811 71.134671
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 14.274533 19.444035 25.987184 34.828481 46.408659 60.999187 80.706921
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.163714 18.656800 25.859102 35.924241 49.545573 67.246007 91.881030
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.741886 17.273724 24.770377 35.580825 50.661358 70.824676 99.670981
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.089324 15.384552 22.791499 33.797525 49.600058 71.306626 103.177742
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.469458 14.901359 22.713206 34.628320 52.170077 76.834885 113.869643
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.946260 14.501246 22.700703 35.516368 54.829206 82.579004 125.118175
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.205927 13.696152 22.010491 35.321324 55.843482 85.960585 133.068342
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.482890 12.849420 21.180879 34.831839 56.345837 88.564990 139.941436
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.971896 12.296343 20.757456 34.924686 57.714356 92.493065 148.950882
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.582218 11.922667 20.608320 35.467569 59.859326 97.780637 160.431088
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.164597 11.465878 20.288327 35.705724 61.523574 102.400917 171.107871
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.693846 10.871945 19.687513 35.418978 62.284303 105.587373 179.607028
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.371996 10.513741 19.456128 35.729735 64.033828 110.421124 190.961406
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.209128 10.430264 19.691127 36.850910 67.201249 117.704952 206.652473
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.831449 9.912617 19.116132 36.499564 67.797093 120.721770 215.346984
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.276626 9.007952 17.773342 34.673244 65.684795 119.034370 215.960957
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.136103 8.901354 17.893733 35.524085 68.379939 125.694327 231.182975
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.011293 8.815158 18.043916 36.433476 71.219614 132.720513 247.335087
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.758359 8.446029 17.624990 36.233749 71.996987 136.130280 257.237687
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.490521 8.023023 17.070211 35.732493 72.172661 138.454587 265.277375